Anthropic's $1.5 Trillion IPO Hits Investor Doubt as the Roadshow Clock Ticks Toward November

Anthropic's plan for the largest initial public offering in history is running into resistance from the very institutions expected to buy it. According to a Reuters exclusive published Wednesday, potential investors in the AI lab's IPO are raising doubts about whether the company can proceed with its planned roadshow next week in time for a November listing, with four people familiar with the investor discussions describing a widening gap between the company's valuation ambitions and what the market is willing to pay.

The core of the pushback is price. Investors are pushing for a more attractive valuation to commit to the offering, and several view the recently discussed $1.5 trillion valuation as the high end of expectations. The Wall Street Journal, which reported the same sentiment separately, quoted one large prospective investor saying the number could end up closer to $1 trillion. Anthropic declined to comment on the investor doubts.

Timing matters as much as price. The roadshow was initially expected to kick off the week of November 9, with pricing expected the following week. But the discussions are playing out against the sharpest technology stock selloff in a year: the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6 percent on Thursday, erasing a record $2.3 trillion in value in a single session, and the Philadelphia chip index plunged 12 percent. Analysts say a decision to delay the offering would likely fuel further concern over the health of the AI ecosystem, at a moment when successful ballot measures limiting data center development have crystallized political opposition to the AI buildout.

Investors are also waiting on a number Anthropic has not provided: October revenue. The company left that figure blank in its updated S-1 filing, and two of the people said investors want to see whether the AI lab has managed to reaccelerate growth after a slowdown in recent months before committing to the deal. The company carries record quarterly losses and has made enormous, largely non-cancelable compute commitments to partners across the AI supply chain, which gives investors leverage to demand a bigger discount.

The scale being discussed remains extraordinary even in a down market. Some expect the offering to reach $100 billion, which would surpass SpaceX's June listing as the largest ever. Earlier this year the IPO was tentatively expected in October at a valuation as high as $2 trillion. The Journal reports Anthropic held $146.6 billion in cash as of September 30, which gives the company the option of raising less than planned or waiting out the volatility rather than accepting a cut-price deal.

The skepticism is not confined to Anthropic. The Journal notes rival OpenAI recently secured just $11 billion of a targeted $30 billion funding round at an adjusted $1.25 trillion valuation, a signal that even the most sought-after private AI assets are being repriced. Executives and advisers at Anthropic are expected to meet in the coming days to review the IPO plans, according to people familiar with the matter, and the company has deliberately avoided committing to specific timing to preserve its options.

Not everyone is bearish. Some analysts argue Anthropic, like SpaceX before it, is likely to benefit from strong retail investor demand. "It's not like these companies are not going to be a part of the future," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments. "Valuations have risen for a long time in the private market, and we'll probably see some pullback." Whether that pullback costs Anthropic a few hundred billion dollars of headline valuation, or a few weeks of waiting, will become clear within days. The pricing of this deal has become a market-wide referendum on what the AI trade is still worth.